用复杂网络理论分析电网连锁性大停电事故机理

针对世界上连续发生的电网连锁性大停电事故,论述了长期以来采用的还原法的思想方法已不完全适应对电网整体动态特性的研究。简述了复杂网络的基本概念;综述了应用复杂网络理论,对美国和中国电网大停电事故的部分数据统计分析的结果。发现电力系统的无标度特性:大停电的规模与出现的概率具有幂律特征,而电网的自组织临界性是发生连锁性大停电事故的内在动力。提出建立实时动态的全国沙堆模型,为预测大停电事故提供实时信息和应用复杂网络的控制理论对电网关键节点进行保护和控制,以缓解大停电事故发生的设想。

Applying complex network theory to analyze mechanism of cascading large blackouts failure

Aim at to take place continuously electric power grid cascading large blackout failure in the world, Reductionism throughway is discussed, which is used for long time and is already incompletely adapted to research whole dynamic characteristic of power system. The basic concept of the complex network was briefly introduced. Applying complex network theory, the statistic and analytical results of part data of large blackout to the American and the Chinese electric power grid were summarized. The scale-free characteristic of the electric power system was discovered. The scale of the large blackout and appear probability are with the characteristic of power law, and self-organized criticality (SOC) of electric power grid is inside drive dint of taking place cascading large blackout failure. To conceive of establishing real time dynamic sand pile models is put forward for the nationwide power grid, which can provide real time information for forecasting large blackout failure, and apply the control theories of the complex network to implement protection and control to the electric power grid key node,and alleviate to take place large blackout failure.