基于台风路径预测信息的输电杆塔累积损伤模型研究

强台风可能对所经区域的输电杆塔造成物理破坏并引发大面积停电。为协助电力部门准确预估台风天气下杆塔倒塔的风险并提前调配和部署防台物资，建立了一种基于台风路径预测信息的输电杆塔累积损伤模型。首先，根据气象台短期台风预报信息、采用网格方式确定受台风影响的风险杆塔；其次，充分结合短期和短时双时间尺度台风基本信息和杆塔地理位置信息，预测杆塔受台风影响的累积作用时间和风速；第三，构建了单位时间内强台风下杆塔因塑性疲劳发生倒塌的低周疲劳损伤数学模型，并利用改进泊松公式求取不同台风作用时间、风速和地理位置的杆塔倒塔概率；最后，基于直流潮流算法优化计算电网最小负荷损失。算例验证了所提方法的有效性、合理性。

Research on Cumulative Damage Model of Transmission Tower Based on Typhoon Path Prediction Information

Strong typhoons may cause physical damage to the transmission towers in the area where it passes, leading to large-scale blackouts. In order to assist the electric power department to accurately predict the risk of tower collapse and deploy anti-typhoon materials in advance, a cumulative damage model of transmission tower is established based on typhoon path prediction information. Firstly, according to the short-term typhoon forecast information of the meteorological department, the risk tower affected by the typhoon is determined by the method of grid division; Secondly, the basic information of the typhoon from the short-term and short-time dual-time scales and the geographical information of the tower are fully combined to predict the cumulative action time and wind speed of the typhoon. Thirdly, a mathematical model of low-cycle fatigue damage is constructed for towers collapsed due to plastic fatigue under unit time, and the improved Poisson formula is used to obtain the fault probability of towers with different typhoon action times, wind speeds and geographical positions. Finally, the minimum load loss of the power grid is calculated using the DC power flow optimization algorithm. Case study has verified the validity and rationality of the proposed model.