我国电力供应紧张原因分析

2003年电力供应紧张再次成为热门话题。主要影响因素表现在：电力投资不足，新增电力投产速度明显与电力需求增长不匹配，工业和高耗电产业高速增长，电网输配能力不足，空调负荷快速增长，电煤价格纠纷造成局部电煤供应紧张，高温干旱少雨造成水电出力不足，电网突发事故等，但根源在于对电力市场缺乏科学的研究，缺乏预见性。为缓解当前缺电局面和防止再次出现全国性的电力短缺，建议加强宏观经济调控，防止出现投资过热和经济过热；兼顾电力发展和结构调整；以市场为导向，科学地研究未来我国的电力市场；准备部分建设周期短的电力项目，以应对经济的超速发展，同时，保持对需求变化的持续预测和跟踪，及时对建设规模进行有效调整，建立及时、有效的电力预报、预警机制；对电力消费出现高速增长期做好必要准备，加快电力建设步伐；针对电力负荷变化特点，重点注意解决峰荷能力不足问题；加强节电力度，力争使电力消费弹性系数逐渐降低；重视电网和配电能力建设，电网和配电能力建设要和发电能力建设统筹协调，统一规划。

Analysis of reasons for power supply shortage

Power supply shortage in 2003 is now to become the popular topic again. The major influencing factors for power supply shortage are indicated as follows: power investment shortage, unmatched growth speed of electric power with power demand increasing, high speed growth of industry and power consuming industry, lower transmission capability for power network, fast increasing of air-condition load, coal supply shortage caused by pricing disputation of electricity and coal, power supply shortage caused by high temperature and to lose rain to cause hydropower shortage, the burst accident of power network. But the sources of the major influencing factors for power supply shortage lie in lacks of science research and foresight for power market. To alleviate the situation of power supply shortage now and to prevent the national power shortage again, the paper suggests to strengthen macro-economic control, prevent arising investment and economic overheat, consider both power development and structural adjustment, study the future power market in China scientifically with market as lead, prepare to build some power projects with short period to meet the high speed growth of economy development. At the same time, the paper presents to maintain the continued forecast and trail of changes for demand, carry out effective adjustment in time for building scale, establish prompt and effective power forecast and mechanism of advance warning, make necessary preparation for high speed increasing of power consuming to accelerate power construction, pay attention to solve the problem of peak load capability according to power load characteristics, strengthen power saving to make power consumer elastic coefficient reduce gradually, pay attention to construction of power network and distribution network, seek coordination and unify planning of power network and distribution construction with generating capacity.