中国新能源弃风弃光原因分析及前景探究

在中国经济步入中高速增长的新常态背景下,弃风、弃光问题日益凸显。梳理了自2004—2014年中国风电、光电发展历程,分区域和省份对中国风电、光电开发现状进行了系统总结。基于国家能源局发布的权威数据,计算了中国重点省份自2011—2015年的平均弃风率和全国的总弃风电量;给出了2015年1—9月中国弃光数据,提出了造成当前中国高弃风、弃光率的5点原因,分析了中国新能源短期和长期发展前景,并给出了在新常态背景下影响中国未来新能源发展的两大因素和需要解决的四大矛盾。

Cause Analysis on Wind and Photovoltaic Energy Curtailment and Prospect Research in China

With the China’s economy entering into the new normal state characterized by high speed development, the abandoned wind and photovoltaic power problem is becoming increasingly prominent. Firstly this paper reviews the development process of wind power and photovoltaic power from 2004 to 2014, and then summarizes the current status in China. Based on the authoritative data released by the National Energy Bureau, the average rate of abandoned wind power rate and the total abandoned wind power are calculated dated from 2011 to 2015 in China. The data of abandoned photovoltaic power in 2015 are also provided. Secondly five reasons are presented which contribute to the high abandoned new energy power rate in China. The paper also explores the prospects of China’s new energy short-term and long-term development. Finally, two major factors and four dilemmas significantly impacting the development of new energy in China are put forward.