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| 重庆地区中长期负荷特性和预测方法研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 雷绍兰,李山,蒋东荣,刘欣宇.重庆地区中长期负荷特性和预测方法研究[J].中国电力,2016,49(1):96-101. |
| 作者姓名： | 雷绍兰 李山 蒋东荣 刘欣宇 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆理工大学 电子信息与自动化学院，重庆 400054； 2. 重庆市电力公司，重庆 400014 |
| 基金项目： | 重庆市科委一般自然基金资助项目（CSTC2012jjA40061） |
| 摘 要： | 对于存在多个影响因素的中长期电力负荷，采用常规灰色模型GM（1，1）进行中长期预测不能获得较好的预测精度。提取了中长期负荷主要影响因素之一的生产总值和年总用电量建立了多变量灰色预测模型MGM（1，2）。为进行比较分析，同时还建立了常规灰色GM（1，1）模型。预测结果显示，多变量灰色模型MGM（1，2）的预测精度优于常规灰色模型GM（1，1）。 |
| 关 键 词： | 中长期电力负荷 灰色系统 MGM（1 m） 影响因素 负荷特性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-08-30 |
Study on the Mid-long Term Load Characteristics of Chongqing Grid and the Forecasting Method |
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| LEI Shaolan,LI Shan,JIANG Dongrong,LIU Xinyu.Study on the Mid-long Term Load Characteristics of Chongqing Grid and the Forecasting Method[J].Electric Power,2016,49(1):96-101. | |
| Authors: | LEI Shaolan LI Shan JIANG Dongrong LIU Xinyu |
| Affiliation: | 1. School of Electronic Information and Automation, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China; 2. Chongqing Electric Power Corp, Chongqing 400014, China |
| Abstract: | For the mid-long term power load that are affected by multiple factors, the general grey model GM(1, 1) can’t provide satisfactory accuracy for the mid-long term forecasting. Therefore, the multivariable grey forecasting model MGM(1, n) is proposed by using the data of total electric power consumption and total output value of Chongqing region. Besides, the general grey forecasting model GM(1, 1) is also established to compare and analyze the prediction accuracy. The forecasting result shows that the proposed model MGM(1, 2) in this paper is superior to the general grey forecasting model GM(1, 1) in forecasting accuracy. |
| Keywords: | mid-long term power load grey system MGM(1 m) influencing factor load characteristics |
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