基于空间相关性的分布式光伏实用化功率预测及误差分析

低压接入的分布式光伏容量激增，其出力随机性对调度部门的负荷预测以及电网安全运行带来严峻挑战。提出一种适用于低压接入的分布式光伏功率预测方法，首先基于空间相关性原理为分布式光伏匹配集中式光伏电站作为功率预测参照，通过日发电量数据建立二者的出力关系，推算分布式光伏在运容量；随后利用参照电站的功率预测值对分布式光伏的功率预测进行初步推算；定义分布式光伏容量折算系数，详细推导出该方法的3类误差来源，提出一种基于分时电量比的误差修正策略。以张家口地区分布式光伏为例，验证了修正后的功率预测方法具有较好的预测精度。

Practical Method and Error Analysis for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Prediction Based on Spatial Correlation

With the rapid rise of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation capacity in the low-voltage distribution network, severe challenges have been brought up to the load forecasting of the dispatching department and the security of the grid operation because of its randomness of output. A practical power prediction method for low-voltage distributed PV is proposed. Firstly, a single concentrated PV station is chosen as reference for the distributed PV based on the spatial correlation principle of adjacent regions. Then the output relationship between distributed PV and reference station is established through existing daily generation data in order to calculate the operating capacity of distributed PV. Next, the predicted power of distributed PV is calculated by the output relationship with the power prediction data of the reference station. Thirdly, based upon the definition of the conversion factor of distributed PV, three kinds of error sources related to the proposed method are deduced. Hence, an error correction scheme for capacity constraint and performance difference between distributed PV and reference station is proposed. Case studies using a group of typical distributed PVs in Zhangjiakou area has verified the effectiveness of the method.