基于数据拟合的继保设备失效率调整因子模型

分析继保设备检修行为对其失效率的影响，有助于继保设备检修计划制定和实现电网长期稳定可靠运行。基于某地区继电保护设备故障数据，采用Matlab工具箱对分段数据进行失效率函数拟合，然后利用遗传算法对失效率调整因子进行计算，建立基于数据拟合的失效率调整因子模型，并使用多地区的设备故障数据对该模型和德尔菲法的模型进行评估。研究结果表明：基于德尔菲法的失效率调整因子模型低估了检修行为对设备失效率的下调能力，文中模型较基于德尔菲法模型累计残差更小，能够更为准确地反映检修行为对继保设备失效率的影响。

Adjustment Factor Model of Relay Protection Equipment Failure Rate Based on Data Fitting

Analyzing the impact of equipment maintenance on the failure rate of relay protection equipment is helpful to the formulation of relay protection equipment maintenance plans and the realization of long-term stable and reliable operation of the power grid. Using the Matlab toolbox to fit the failure rate function of the segmented data based on the failure data of the relay protection device in a certain area. Then the genetic algorithm is used to fit the failure rate adjustment factor, a failure rate adjustment factor model based on data fitting is established. Finally, the model in paper and the model based on the Delphi method were evaluated based on equipment failure data in multiple regions. Research indicates: The failure rate adjustment factor model based on the Delphi method underestimates the ability of maintenance to reduce the failure rate of equipment. The model in the paper has a smaller cumulative residual error than the model based on the Delphi method. It can more accurately reflect the impact of maintenance on the failure rate of relay protection equipment.