基于时变因素的光伏发电系统可靠性评估

随着光伏发电的大规模发展，光伏电站的可靠性水平愈加受到重视。提出一种基于时变因素的光伏发电可靠性评估方法，通过分析光伏发电系统运行机理、元件失效模式及其对输出功率的影响，建立系统输出功率的概率模型，形成光伏系统可靠性评价指标，并构造光伏发电系统六状态空间模型。基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法，综合考虑气候条件、元件老化和光照强度，对某50 MW光伏电站运行可靠性进行评估。仿真结果表明，该模型及指标可有效反映系统的实际运行情况、出力水平和故障情况，为光伏电站运维提供支撑。

Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic System Based on Time Varying Factors

With the large-scale development of photovoltaic (PV) generations, the reliability level of PV stations has attracted more and more attention. A reliability evaluation method of photovoltaic generation is proposed based on time-varying factors. By analyzing the operation mechanism of PV generation system, the component failure mode and its impact on output power, a probabilistic model of system output power is proposed and the reliability evaluation indices of PV system are established, and a six-state space model of PV system is constructed as well. Based on the sequential Monte Carlo method, the operational reliability of a 50 MW PV station is evaluated with consideration the climate conditions, component aging and radiations. The simulation results show that the proposed model and indices can effectively reflect the actual operation state, output level and fault conditions of the system, which can provide support for the operation and maintenance of PV stations.