计及分布式能源影响的母线净负荷预测方法研究

随着清洁能源应用的不断发展和大量的光伏、风电场建成投入使用,电力系统的负荷预测工作又面临了新的挑战,尤其是对体量较小的母线负荷预测而言,具有较强不确定性的风电接入使其准确预测的难度加大。以风电为例,首先研究了接入某母线的风电出力特性和历史预测误差分布情况。然后基于母线负荷需求的自适应预测策略,考虑风功率非平稳性而进行的风功率预测结果,采用两阶段还原的预测思路对母线净负荷进行预测。仿真算例分析表明,提出的预测方法用于风电接入的母线净负荷预测的预测效果较好。

Study on Bus Net Load Forecast Method Considering the Influence of Distributed Energy

With continuous development of clean energy and a large number of PV and wind farms built and put into operation,power system load forecasting is now faced with new challenges.For the relatively small volume of bus load forecasting in particular,wind power access of high uncertainty makes accurate forecast even more difficult.Taking wind power as example,it was firstly studied the characteristics of the output of wind power accessed to a certain bus as well as the distribution of historical forecast errors.Then,based on the adaptive prediction strategy of bus load demand,wind power forecasting results were presented under consideration of the non-stationarity of wind power.The two-phase reduction approach was adopted to forecast the net load of the bus.Analysis of the simulation example shows that the forecast method proposed in this paper can produce better effects for the bus net load forecast with wind power access.