| 基于系统动态仿真模拟的第二产业用电量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何永秀,吴良器,李德智,李艳,蔡琦.基于系统动态仿真模拟的第二产业用电量预测研究[J].华东电力,2008(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 何永秀 吴良器 李德智 李艳 蔡琦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学,北京,102206
2. 华北电网有限公司,北京,100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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国家社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 从系统动态的观点出发,分析了第二产业用电量各种影响因素的因果关系,构造了由GDP、第二产业电力消费强度两个子系统组成的第二产业电力经济模拟仿真系统,在此基础上建立了第二产业用电需求预测模型。最后通过对辽宁省第二产业用电量的模拟仿真与预测,初步证明了模型的全面性、准确性和实用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 系统动态仿真 计算机模拟 工业 用电量 预测 |
Power consumption forecast for industrial sector based on system dynamic simulation models |
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| HE Yong-xiu,WU Liang-qi,LI De-zhi,LI Yan,CAI Qi.Power consumption forecast for industrial sector based on system dynamic simulation models[J].East China Electric Power,2008(4). |
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| Authors: | HE Yong-xiu WU Liang-qi LI De-zhi LI Yan CAI Qi |
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| Abstract: | The causal relationship between electricity consumption of the industrial sector and various influencing factors is analyzed from the point of view of system dynamics.The electricity and economy simulation system which consists of two subsystems of GDP and the industrial sector electricity consumption intensity was constructed,and based on that the industrial sector electricity consumption forecast model was established.The model was used to forecast the industrial sector electricity consumption of Liaoning Province and was proved accurate and practical. |
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| Keywords: | system dynamic simulation computer simulation industry electricity consumption forecast |
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