| 电力负荷特性预测软件及其在浙江电网中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱坚强,徐谦,武鹏,张宁,程浩忠.电力负荷特性预测软件及其在浙江电网中的应用[J].华东电力,2008,36(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱坚强 徐谦 武鹏 张宁 程浩忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海,200240
2. 浙江省电力公司,浙江,杭州,310007 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市科技攻关项目，高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了新开发的电力负荷特性预测软件包实现的年持续负荷曲线预测和典型日负荷曲线预测的预测原理和方法.软件既能通过多种负荷预测模型对未来年的年最大负荷、用电量进行预测;也能对未来年的负荷特性曲线进行预测.其中,年持续负荷曲线采用排序法进行预测;典型日负荷曲线采用分行业叠加法进行预测.应用结果表明本软件的预测效果较好,达到了实用化水平.
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 负荷特性预测软件 年持续负荷曲线预测 典型日负荷曲线预测 |
Power load characteristics forecasting software and its application to Zhejiang Power Grid |
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| ZHU Jian-qiang,XU Qian,WU Peng,ZHANG Ning,CHENG Hao-zhong.Power load characteristics forecasting software and its application to Zhejiang Power Grid[J].East China Electric Power,2008,36(9). |
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| Authors: | ZHU Jian-qiang XU Qian WU Peng ZHANG Ning CHENG Hao-zhong |
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| Abstract: | A new Windows-based software package developed for power system load characteristics forecasting is proposed,and its principle and methods for forecasting the annual load duration curve and the typical daily load curve are explained.Several kinds of models were developed and used in the software to forecast the annual maximum load and the electricity that will be consumed in the next few years,as well as the load characteristic curve in the future.The ranking method was used for annual duration load curve forecasting,while the method of aggregating by industries was used to forecast the typical daily curve.Applications prove the software convenient,accurate,and practical. |
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| Keywords: | power load load characteristic forecasting software annual load duration curve forecasting typical daily load curve forecasting |
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