| 模糊数与多指标灰靶决策理论相结合的小区负荷预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴冰,张筱慧.模糊数与多指标灰靶决策理论相结合的小区负荷预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(11):124-128. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴冰 张筱慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院，北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划子课题资助（2006BAJ04B06-001） |
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| 摘 要： | 将模糊数与多指标灰靶决策理论相结合应用于小区负荷预测：收集各类小区负荷密度及相关因素样本，通过模糊聚类方法分析样本形成模糊负荷密度等级；根据模糊负荷密度等级和待预测小区未来相关因素，采用基于熵权的多指标灰靶决策进行小区负荷密度预测；利用类内相似度法对小区负荷密度进行修正。算例结果表明将模糊数和多指标灰靶决策理论结合起来应用于小区负荷密度预测，准确度和可信度较高。该方法将预测过程科学量化，克服了以往简单类比法主观性大的缺点。
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| 关 键 词： | 小区负荷密度 模糊聚类分析法 多指标灰靶决策 熵权法 相似度 |
Application of fuzzy number and multi-attribute weighted grey target theory in small area load forecasting |
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| WU Bing,ZHANG Xiao-hui.Application of fuzzy number and multi-attribute weighted grey target theory in small area load forecasting[J].Power System Protection and Control,2011,39(11):124-128. |
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| Authors: | WU Bing ZHANG Xiao-hui |
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| Affiliation: | WU Bing,ZHANG Xiao-hui(College of Information and Electrical Engineering,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper applies fuzzy number and the multi-attribute grey target theory to small area load forecasting. Firstly,various kinds of small area load density and their influencing factor samples are collected and the load density degree in fuzzy number are formed with fuzzy clustering analysis on sample data;then with the fuzzy load density degree and future influencing factor data under test,we adopt the multi-attribute grey target theory based on entropy weight to forecast the small area load density;finall... |
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| Keywords: | small area load density fuzzy cluster analysis multi-attribute grey target theory entropy weight similarity degree |
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