电力变压器全寿命周期经济-物理综合寿命评估方法

针对电力变压器寿命定量评估问题,提出了电力变压器全寿命周期经济-物理综合寿命评估方法。首先建立电力变压器全寿命周期成本模型,分析了全寿命周期成本各组成部分与运行时间的关系,以全寿命周期成本最低原则得到电力变压器经济寿命。建立了电力变压器物理寿命评价指标体系,从电力变压器主绝缘老化程度、绝缘运行状态和部件缺陷风险三个方面进行综合评价,运用层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重,得到电力变压器物理寿命。以电力变压器物理寿命作为基准,综合考虑经济寿命,建立全寿命周期经济-物理综合寿命模型。对某电力变压器进行实例分析,评估了该变压器的经济-物理综合寿命,验证了所提方法的合理性和实用性。

Evaluating method of power transformers full life cycle economic-physical comprehensive life

The method of power transformers full life cycle economic-physical comprehensive life evaluation is presented to solve the problem of quantitative life prediction. First, the life cycle cost model of power transformer is set up. The relationship between the components of the life cycle cost and the running time is analyzed. The economic life of power transformer is obtained by using the minimum full life cycle cost principle. The physical life evaluation system of power transformer is built from three aspects:the degree of main insulation aging, the state of insulation operation and the risk of component defects. The weight of each evaluation index is given by analytic hierarchy process, and then the physical life of power transformer is calculated. Considering the economic life, the economic-physical comprehensive life calculation method of power transformer is put forward based on the power transformer physical life. Finally, a power transformer is taken as an example to calculate the comprehensive economic-physical life, and the rationality and practicability of the method are verified. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51777199).