| 基于动态Copula的风光联合出力建模及动态相关性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 段偲默,苗世洪,霍雪松,李力行,韩佶,晁凯云.基于动态Copula的风光联合出力建模及动态相关性分析[J].电力系统保护与控制,2019,47(5):35-42. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 段偲默 苗世洪 霍雪松 李力行 韩佶 晁凯云 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室,电力安全与高效湖北省 重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430074;江苏电力调度控制中心,江苏 南京,210000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0902600);国家电网公司科技项目(SGJS0000DKJS1700840);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973 计划)(2015CB251301) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 准确描述风力发电和光伏发电的动态相关性及联合出力的波动性,对风光互补系统的出力预测和经济调度具有重要意义。针对现行静态相关系数无法准确描述风光出力相依关系的问题,研究了风光出力的动态相关性,提出了基于动态Copula函数的风光联合出力模型构建方法。结合实测数据建立了8组动态与静态的风光联合出力Copula模型,用动态相关系数描述风光出力的相关性。运用拟合优度检验方法验证了动态Copula模型对比其静态模型的优越性,选出最优模型。最后将该模型应用在数据驱动的风光联合系统中,验证了其合理性与正确性。
|
| 关 键 词： | Copula理论 动态Copula函数 风光互补 相关系数 拟合优度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/2/2 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/5/7 0:00:00 |
Modeling and dynamic correlation analysis of wind/solar power joint output based on dynamic Copula |
| |
| DUAN Simo,MIAO Shihong,HUO Xuesong,LI Lixing,HAN Ji and CHAO Kaiyun.Modeling and dynamic correlation analysis of wind/solar power joint output based on dynamic Copula[J].Power System Protection and Control,2019,47(5):35-42. |
| |
| Authors: | DUAN Simo MIAO Shihong HUO Xuesong LI Lixing HAN Ji and CHAO Kaiyun |
| |
| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Hubei Electric Power Security and High Efficiency Key Laboratory, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China,State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Hubei Electric Power Security and High Efficiency Key Laboratory, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China,Jiangsu Electric Power Dispatch Center, Nanjing 210000, China,State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Hubei Electric Power Security and High Efficiency Key Laboratory, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China,State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Hubei Electric Power Security and High Efficiency Key Laboratory, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China and State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Hubei Electric Power Security and High Efficiency Key Laboratory, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Describing the dynamic correlation of wind/solar power output and the fluctuation of joint output accurately are of great significance to the output forecasting and economic dispatch of the wind solar hybrid system. According to the problem that the existing static correlation coefficient cannot accurately describe the relationship between the wind power and PV output, this paper studies dynamic correlation of wind/solar power output and proposes a wind/solar power joint output model construction method by using dynamic Copula function. Combining with the measured data, it establishes 8 groups of wind/solar power joint output model, applies dynamic correlation coefficient to describe dynamic correlation of wind/solar power output and uses goodness of fit method to prove the superiority of the dynamic Copula model comparing to the static model to select the optimal model. Finally, the model is applied to the data driven wind/solar joint system, and the rationality and correctness of the model are verified. This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFB0902600), Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China (No. SGJS0000DKJS1700840), and National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) ( No. 2015CB251301). |
| |
| Keywords: | Copula method dynamic Copula function wind/solar hybrid correlation coefficient goodness of fit |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《电力系统保护与控制》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《电力系统保护与控制》下载全文 |
|
