计及输电网络时空风险的动态电价模型

开展大用户直购电能够激发电力市场的潜力，是中国电力市场化改革的突破口，其中的输电定价方法是影响电力市场发展的关键因素。已有的输配电价年度成本核算方法不能灵活反映用户选择不同购电对象、不同用电方式对输电成本的影响。为此提出基于输电网络时空风险因素的大用户直购电动态电价模型，用以反映用户从不同电源点购电以及不同时间段用电带来的输电成本的变化。将输电成本分解为反映输电网络受气象环境时空变化特征的故障风险成本和不随时空关系变化的固定成本两类，由此确定按月计算的动态电价核定方法。通过构建动态电价模型可以引导用户根据自身特点选择低风险月份多用电、高风险月份少用电的用电模式，降低电网高风险时间段的输电压力，提高电网可靠性。算例给出了大用户从不同空间位置的电厂以及在不同月份购电的风险成本及价格差异，验证了所提模型的有效性和实用性，可为政府核定输配电电价提供借鉴。

Dynamic electricity pricing model considering space-time risk factor in transmission networks

Carrying out the direct power purchase for large users can stimulate the power market potential, which is the breakthrough of China''s power market-oriented reform. The electricity pricing method is a key factor affecting the development of power market. The existing annual cost accounting method of the power transmission and distribution cannot reflect the influence on transmission cost when users choose different power stations to purchase electricity and use it in different time periods. This paper proposes dynamic electricity price model based on time-space risk factors for the direct power purchase of large users to reflect the situation of different risk because of the atmosphere and environment in which power grid encountered. The power transmission and distribution costs will be decomposed into two categories, thus to determine the monthly calculation of dynamic electricity price method. By constructing a dynamic electricity price model, users can select the low-risk month of multi-power consumption according to their own characteristics and reduce the transmission pressure of the high-risk period of the power grid to improve grid reliability. The calculation results show that the model is effective and practical, and it can be used to provide reference for estimating the price of power transmission and distribution for government. This work is supported by Major Basic Foresight Science and Technology of State Grid Corporation of China (No. SG20141187).