基于模糊互补AHP的负荷预测模拟决策

对于快速发展的地区,不同的预测方法所得的中长期负荷预测结果会相去甚远,某些预测结果甚至是无效且不可信的。所以规划决策支持系统中不仅要有多种方法的预测,还应增加其模拟决策模块。文章提出负荷预测的模拟决策,将改进的模糊互补AHP方法应用于预测模拟决策系统。计及影响电力负荷预测的各相关因素,建立电力负荷预测的多层次、多因素的决策分析结构,利用专家知识,构造具有模糊互补性的个体或群体决策的判断矩阵,并简洁而准确地计算特征向量。进一步处理特征向量作为预测决策权重,获得了满意预测决策。该方法用于规划决策支持系统中的模

Simulation decision-making for load forecast based on the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

Different methods of load forecasting can lead to very different results in power system load forecast. In order to obtain satisfied forecasting results, the decision-making methods are introduced to solve the engineering forecasting problems in the decision-making support system for electric power system planning. The model and method of simulating decision-making using knowledge-based expert system for load forecast are presented. The improved fuzzy AHP is used. A hierarchy structure is established by analyzing various factors that affect the load forecast. Fuzzy complementary judgment matrixes of pairwise comparison will be formed by expert in each hierarchy and be converted to a fuzzy consistent matrix. The eigenvector can be calculated through a general formula and be treated as weight coefficient in a manner. The method has been used to simulate the decision-making process of load forecasting engineering applications. It is characteristic of scientific decision, practice and expansion.