| 运用季节和趋势模型预测用电负荷 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨颖. 运用季节和趋势模型预测用电负荷[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2004, 6(3): 22-24 |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市电力公司,市东供电公司,上海,200122;上海交通大学,上海,200052 |
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| 摘 要： | 用电需求迅猛增长和电力供需矛盾日益突出使得用电负荷预测越来越重要。对引起用电负荷变化的季节性和趋势性特点进行分析，并以此为依据，建立季节和趋势摸型来预测2004年月度用电负荷。预测结果表明季节和趋势预测模型是一种有效和可行的负荷预测方法。运用该方法对负荷进行预测对于如何在现有的供电容量下提高电能使用效率、提高电网负荷宰具有重要的指导意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷回归方程 季节和趋势模型 平滑系数 负荷预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-1831(2004)03-0022-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-12-23 |
Power Utility Load Forecasting Using Season and Trend Mode |
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| YANG Ying. Power Utility Load Forecasting Using Season and Trend Mode[J]. Power Demand Side Management, 2004, 6(3): 22-24 |
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| Authors: | YANG Ying |
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| Abstract: | The suddenly increasing of power use demand and the increasing outthrust of power supply and demand confliction make the load forecasting more important. Analyze the internal and external character which induce power use load changes and make it as base and build up season and trend mode to forecast monthly load in 2004.The forecasting result shows that season and trend mode is an effective and feasible load forecasting method. Applying this method to forecast load assumes constructive meanings to improve power use efficiency under the present power supply quanlity. |
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| Keywords: | Load regression equation Season and trend mode Smoothness coefficient Load forecasting |
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