| 基于改进灰色GM模型的用电量预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李松.基于改进灰色GM模型的用电量预测方法研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2006,8(5):17-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李松 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北软件职业技术学院,河北,保定,071000 |
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| 摘 要： | 季度用电量同时具有增长性和季节波动性二重趋势,而灰色GM(1,1)预测模型只能反映用电量的总体变化趋势,不能很好反映其季节性波动变化的具体特征。提出灰色GM(1．1)用电最预测模型的改进模型——灰色季节变动指数模型GSI(1,1)模型,将灰色预测方法与季节指数有机结合起来。算例表明,与灰色预测方法相比,GSI(1,1)模型具有更强的适应性和更高的预测精度,适用于季节性用电量预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 用电量预测 灰色理论 季节指数 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-1831(2006)05-0017-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 09 1 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年9月1日 |
Research on electricity demand forecasting method based on improved grey GM model |
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| LI Song.Research on electricity demand forecasting method based on improved grey GM model[J].Power Demand Side Management,2006,8(5):17-19. |
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| Authors: | LI Song |
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| Affiliation: | Hebei Software Institute, Baoding 071000, China |
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| Abstract: | The seasonal electricity demand possesses dual property of increasement and seasonal fluctuation simultaneously. GM(1,1)model reflects the general trend of the electricity de- mand while fails to reflect the characteristics of seasonal fluctu- ation.The paper proposes the improved model of GM(1,1) model which is called GSI(1,1).GSI(1,1)model is the combi- nation of grey system and seasonal index.The forecasting results demonstrate that the GSI(1,1)model has higher adaptability and forecast precision for seasonal electricity demand forecast- ing.It suits seasonal electricity demand forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | electricity demand forecasting grey theory seasonal index |
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