| 基于时变参数模型的中长期负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李翔,陈昊.基于时变参数模型的中长期负荷预测[J].电力需求侧管理,2009,11(2):32-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李翔 陈昊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司,电网控制分公司,南京,210061
2. 南京供电公司,南京,210008 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种基于状态空间时变参数模型的中长期负荷预测建模新方法．将状态变量纳入可观模型求解，反映了变量间均衡关系的变化规律。实证部分使用中国年度用电量与国内生产总值时间序列建立了模型，对2002—2005年度的用电量进行了测算，检验了方法的有效性，
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 卡尔曼滤波 状态空间 时变参数模型 |
Medium and long-term load forecasting based on time-varying parameter model |
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| LI Xiang,CHEN Hao.Medium and long-term load forecasting based on time-varying parameter model[J].Power Demand Side Management,2009,11(2):32-34. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiang CHEN Hao |
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| Affiliation: | 1. NARI. Technology Development Co.;Ltd.;Nanjing 210061;China;2. Nanjing Electric Power Supply Company;Nanjing 210008;China |
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| Abstract: | A new method of medium and long term load forecast model based on state space time-varying parameter model is presented. The state variable is brought into observable model tor solution, which reflects the varying rules of equilibria relation of variables. In demonstration section, the model with China yearly electricity consumption and GDP is estimated, and the forecast pertformance of 2002--2005 yearly electricity consumption is provided. The efficiency of this method is validated. |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting Kallman filtering state space time-varying parameter model |
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