| 基于灰色生成的卡尔曼滤波短期负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟思齐,杨洪耕.基于灰色生成的卡尔曼滤波短期负荷预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2008,20(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟思齐 杨洪耕 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川大学电气信息学院,成都,610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色系统理论数据生成方式,提出了利用负荷级比累加序列进行卡尔曼滤波短期负荷预测的方法,以减小数据波动对预测精度的影响.首先依据移动时间窗原理对预测点附近的历史负荷数据进行提取,再采用级比和累加生成方式对提取数据进行处理,最后运用卡尔曼滤波算法对负荷级比序列累加值进行预测,并通过还原算法得到所需预测时刻的负荷值.对实际电网的负荷数据进行为期一周的仿真分析,其结果表明了该方法比基本的移动时间窗滤波算法具有更好的预测效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 短期负荷预测 移动时间窗 级比生成 累加生成 卡尔曼滤波 |
Short-term Load Forecasting Using Kalman Filter Based on Grey Generation |
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| MENG Si-qi,YANG Hong-geng.Short-term Load Forecasting Using Kalman Filter Based on Grey Generation[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2008,20(6). |
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| Authors: | MENG Si-qi YANG Hong-geng |
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| Affiliation: | MENG Si-qi,YANG Hong-geng(School of Electric Engineering , Information,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China) |
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| Abstract: | To reduce the influence of data fluctuation on forecasting precision,incorporating the data generating process in grey system theory,this paper presents a three-step short-term load forecasting method based on load ratio generating and accumulated generating sequences.First,ideas in the moving time window technique is used to select historical load data around a target point.Then a ratio of the current point load data is taken to the previous point load data to generate a new sequence and the new sequence i... |
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| Keywords: | short-term load forecasting moving time window load ratio generating accumulated generating Kalman filter |
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