| 改进残差灰色预测模型在负荷预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王翠茹,孙辰军,杨静,冯海迅.改进残差灰色预测模型在负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2006,18(1):86-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王翠茹 孙辰军 杨静 冯海迅 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学计算机科学与技术学院,保定,071003 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文介绍了传统残差灰色模型的基本原理和建立方法,针对模型中存在的问题对该模型进行了改进,运用马尔可夫状态转移矩阵来判断残差预测值在k>n时的符号,提高了预测精度。并用天津地区1995年到2002年的负荷量作为历史数据进行了预测,结果表明预测精度明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 残差 马尔柯夫 状态矩阵 负荷预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8930（2006）01-0086-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-03-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-05-24 |
Application of Modified Residual Error Gray Prediction Model in Power Load Forecasting |
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| WANG Cui-ru,SUN Chen-jun,YANG Jing,FENG Hai-xun.Application of Modified Residual Error Gray Prediction Model in Power Load Forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2006,18(1):86-89. |
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| Authors: | WANG Cui-ru SUN Chen-jun YANG Jing FENG Hai-xun |
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| Affiliation: | School of Computer Science and Technology,North China Electric Pow.er University, Baoding 071003, China |
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| Abstract: | The basic principles and methods of conventional residual error Gray Model are presented and the model is improved using the Markov state shift matrix to judge the state of residual error predicted value when the value of k is larger than n.And then the prediction was performed using the load of Tianjin area from 1995 to 2002 as historical data.The improvement in forecasting accuracy is verified by the results. |
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| Keywords: | Gray Model residual error Markov state shift matrix load forecasting |
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