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| 基于改进灰色模型的超短期负荷预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 张红旭,姚建刚,曹伟,马贵霞.基于改进灰色模型的超短期负荷预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2009,21(6). |
| 作者姓名： | 张红旭 姚建刚 曹伟 马贵霞 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河南省电力勘测设计院,郑州,450007 2. 湖南湖大华龙电气与信息技术有限公司,长沙,410012 3. 长沙理工大学化学与生物工程学院,长沙,410077 |
| 摘 要： | 通过分析现行的超短期负荷预测方法存在的问题,提出了应用灰色模型纵向预测和横向趋势外推修正的超短期负荷预测新方法.引入最新的历史负荷信息,对纵向预测的近似曲线进行修正,纵向预测值能反映出总体的发展规律,而横向修正值又体现最新态势变化,并把选择相似日的新思路融合在预测过程中.用实际数据检验表明,该方法能对预测精度有所改善,具有较好的工程实用性. |
| 关 键 词： | 超短期负荷预测 灰色模型 重合系数 纵向预测 横向修正 |
Ultra-short Term Load Forecasting Based on Improved Gray Model |
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| ZHANG Hong-xu,YAO Jian-gang,CAO Wei,MA Gui-xia.Ultra-short Term Load Forecasting Based on Improved Gray Model[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2009,21(6). | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Hong-xu YAO Jian-gang CAO Wei MA Gui-xia |
| Affiliation: | ZHANG Hong-xu1,YAO Jian-gang2,CAO Wei2,MA Gui-xia3(1.Hemnan Electric Power Survey & Design Institute,Zhengzhou 450007,China,2.HDHL Electrical , Information Technology Limited Company,Changsha 410012,3.College of Chemical , Biological Engineering,Changsha University of Science, Technology,Changsha 410077,China) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the current problem ultra-short term load forecasting methods,and puts forward a novel ultra-short term load forecasting method.The method includes combination forecasting vertically and adjusting horizontally with load trend based on gray model.The forepassed load informations are introduced to correct the proximate curue of vertical forecasting.The value of vertical forecasting reflects the total development rule and the value of horizontal famending shows the upto date development tren... |
| Keywords: | ultra-short term load forecasting gray model superposition coefficient forecasting vertically amending horizontally |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |