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线路N-K停运机理及其概率模型
引用本文:管霖,郑传材.线路N-K停运机理及其概率模型[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2009,21(4).
作者姓名:管霖  郑传材
作者单位:华南理工大学电力学院,广州,510640
摘    要:针对电网规划和安全评估中对多重线路停运的模式和概率估计不足的问题,提出一类多重线路停运的组合模型。运用故障树法(FTA)分析线路N-K停运机理的基础上,建立一种计及主接线电气联系方式、线路架设方式及继电保护潜故障等因素影响的线路N-K停运概率模型。采用模型验证广西电网部分线路停运概率,结果表明在计及上述因素影响下,线路N-K组合故障发生的概率远高于预期,在电网规划、安全评估及连锁故障初始事件的选择中应充分重视该类组合事件。

关 键 词:电网规划  安全分析  组合故障  概率分析  故障筛选  

Transmission Line N-K Outage Mechanism and Its Probability Model
Guan Lin,Zheng Chuan-cai.Transmission Line N-K Outage Mechanism and Its Probability Model[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2009,21(4).
Authors:Guan Lin  Zheng Chuan-cai
Affiliation:College of Electric Power;South China University of Technology;Guangzhou 510640;China
Abstract:A combined approach is presented to deal with underestimation of emergence patterns of multiple transmission-line outage in power network planning and safety assessment.On the basis of analyzing line N-K outage mechanism adopting FTA(fault tree analysis) algorithm,a probability model of line N-K outage is proposed considering the influence of main electrical connection,line-erecting modes and relay-protection.Analysis of partial transmission lines in Guangxi grid validates that probability of line N-K outag...
Keywords:power network planning  safety assessment  multiple transmission-line outage  probability analysis  fault filtration  
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