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一种基于时间序列的配电网物资预测方法
引用本文:赵深,程栋,陈勇杰,贾雍.一种基于时间序列的配电网物资预测方法[J].浙江电力,2020(4):52-56.
作者姓名:赵深  程栋  陈勇杰  贾雍
作者单位:国网浙江省电力有限公司
摘    要:在国家电网当下背景与发展要求下,针对电网物资库存的管理现状,迫切需要对物资需求进行精准预测。以目前的电网数据条件、数据挖掘技术条件为基础进行可行性研究验证;最后通过时间序列、 LSTM神经网络等算法对物资领用历史数据进行建模分析,得到一种有效的物资预测研究方法。

关 键 词:物资预测  标包  时间序列  LSTM神经网络  指数平滑法  Croston算法

A Distribution Network Material Forecasting Method Based on Time Series
ZHAO Shen,CHENG Dong,CHEN Yongjie,JIA Yong.A Distribution Network Material Forecasting Method Based on Time Series[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2020(4):52-56.
Authors:ZHAO Shen  CHENG Dong  CHEN Yongjie  JIA Yong
Affiliation:(State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310007,China)
Abstract:Under the current context and development requirements of the SGCC, it is urgent to accurately forecast the material demand given the existing management of grid material inventory. Based on the present situation of grid data and data mining technology, the feasibility study is verified;finally, the time series forecasting and LSTM are adopted to build a model and analyze historical reception data to conclude an effective material forecasting study method.
Keywords:material forecasting  standard package  time series  LSTM  exponential smoothing method  Croston algorithm
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