| 考虑时空分布特性的风速预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶燕飞,王琦,陈宁,伏祥运,赵阳.考虑时空分布特性的风速预测模型[J].继电器,2017,45(4):114-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶燕飞 王琦 陈宁 伏祥运 赵阳 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院，江苏 南京 210042,南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院，江苏 南京 210042,中国电力科学研究院，江苏 南京 210003,江苏电力公司连云港供电公司电力调度中心，江苏 连云港 222004,南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院，江苏 南京 210042 |
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| 摘 要： | 随着风电并网规模日益增加，风电功率波动对电网的影响将更加显著。风速预测可以辅助电网制定调度和运行控制决策，合理应对风电功率波动，降低风电功率波动对电网安全稳定运行的影响。考虑风电机组的地理分布和风速的时间、空间分布特性，建立等效风速模型。由该模型建立上、下游风电机组的风速关联关系，修正下游风电机组的风速。在此基础上，提出一种基于修正系数的风速预测方法，以提高预测精度。以实际风电场地理数据和风电机组参数为基础的仿真算例验证了该方法的可行性和合理性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风速预测 尾流效应 时空分布模型 修正风速 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/3/1 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/5/26 0:00:00 |
Wind forecast model considering the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution |
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| YE Yanfei,WANG Qi,CHEN Ning,FU Xiangyun and ZHAO Yang.Wind forecast model considering the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution[J].Relay,2017,45(4):114-120. |
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| Authors: | YE Yanfei WANG Qi CHEN Ning FU Xiangyun and ZHAO Yang |
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| Affiliation: | School of Electrical & Automation Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210042, China,School of Electrical & Automation Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210042, China,China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, China,Lianyungang Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center, Lianyungang 222004, China and School of Electrical & Automation Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210042, China |
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| Abstract: | With the increasing of scale of wind power integrated into power system, the influence of wind power fluctuation to the power system is more serious. Wind speed prediction can help formulate electric power grid scheduling and make operational control decision, rational response to wind power fluctuations can reduce the impact of wind power fluctuations on grid safety and stable operation. This paper establishes an equivalent wind speed model considering the geographic distribution of wind turbines and wind speed distribution in time and space. The wind speed relationship between upstream wind turbine and downstream wind turbine is established based on this model, which is used to fix the wind speed of downstream wind turbine. In addition, a wind farm power forecasting method is proposed based on wind speed revision, in order to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power. The feasibility and rationality of the method is verified by simulation examples based on actual wind farms parameters and geographic data. |
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| Keywords: | wind speed prediction wake effect spatio-temporal distribution model modified wind speed |
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