考虑高温累积效应的夏季日最大负荷预测

对湖南地区夏季日最大负荷与温度进行敏感性分析,得出夏季温度对负荷的影响可分为2个阶段,并提出变换公式来描述平均温度对负荷的阶段性影响。确定出现高温累积效应的温度界限值,并以高温持续天数与最高温度定义高温累积效应,直观反映持续高温对负荷的影响程度。引入温度的＂1度效应＂和高温累积的＂1天效应＂概念,并对其进行分析。建立考虑温度变化、持续高温和人们生产、生活规律的夏季日最大负荷预测模型,验证了高温累积效应的方法合理、有效。

Summer daily peak load forecasting considering heat cumulative effect

The sensibility between daily peak load and the average temperature in Hunan province is analyzed,and a conclusion is drawed that there are two stages in average temperature impact on summer daily peak load,and a switch formula describing the staged law applied to reform average temperature is proposed.Based on sensitivity analysis of max-temperature and daily peak load,the occurring threshold value of heat cumulative effect is determined.Heat cumulative effect which visually manifests effect of durative heat is defined by durative heat days and max-temperature.The "1-degree effect" in temperature and"1-day effect" in heat cumulative are analyzed.The forecasting model of summer daily peak load considering temperature,durative heat and pattern of production and living is put forward.Simulation with actual load of Hunan province shows that forecasting results is perfect and the heat cumulative effect definition method is reasonable and effective.