电网规划风险评估工程综合应用研究

阐述了风险评估技术在输电网规划实际工程中的应用，基于输电通道建设时序、网架加强、单一工程对电网风险影响等工程实例进行静态风险分析。通过建立的静态安全最优控制模型和方法，评估“晋、陕、蒙”能源基地不同外送通道建设时序方案的风险水平，以及通道中关键线路可靠性参数变化、通道送电规模变化对系统风险水平的影响；以华中电网某局部500 kV电网为例，量化规划方案风险水平，找出电网的薄弱环节，从降低风险角度判断加强网架的必要性，明确电网建设投资方向；以华东电网1 000 kV环网工程为例，从风险分析的角度，量化分析单一输变电工程投产前后对电网静态风险水平的影响。

Comprehensive Application of Risk Evaluation Project for Power Grid Planning

This paper described the practical application of risk evaluation techniques in transmission network planning projects, and analyzed the static risk of engineering examples, such as the construction sequence of transmission channel, power grid reinforcement planning, the effect of a transmission project on grid risk level, etc. Based on the established static optimal control model and method, the risk level of construction sequences schemes for Jin, San, Meng energy base power transfer channels was evaluated, as well as the reliability parameters change of the key lines in channels, and the impact of various transfer capacities on the system risk level. Taking a 500 kV grid in Central China as example, this paper quantitated the risk level of planning scheme, found out the weakness of grid, judged the necessity of strengthening grid from the perspective of risk reduction, and clarified the investment direction of power grid construction. Taking 1000 kV loop network in the Eastern China Power Grid as example, quantitative analysis was carried out on the impact of single transmission project commissioning on the static risk level of power grid.