基于灰色理论的电网设备更换最优时间

摘 要：电网设备是电力企业的核心资产，研究电网设备的精益化管理和科学的经济寿命对电力企业投资决策及经营管理具有实际意义。基于资产全寿命周期管理的系统理念，采用技术经济评价成本年金法，对设备的综合成本进行分析，建立电网设备经济寿命测算模型；在此基础上，利用历年实际数据，建立运行费用灰色G（1,1）预测模型，并通过后验差检验法检验运行费用预测的准确性，从而确定设备报废及更换的最优时机，可以实现设备的成本最优化、效益最大化。算例表明，文章所构建的基于灰色理论预测的电网设备经济寿命测算模型是可行的，测算结果较为准确。通过与设备实际使用年限对比，分析存在差异原因，可为电网公司的技改和电网规划工作提供一定的决策支撑。

Study on the Optimal Replacement Time of Physical Assets in Power Grid on the Basis of Grey Theory

Equipment is the core asset of the power company, researching the lean management of equipment and the scientific economic life is of great significance to the grid investment decision. In this paper, concept of asset life cycle management and cost annuity method are used to analyze the overall cost of the equipment, and to establish the calculation model of economic equipment life. Using grey theory and actual data over the years, a prediction model G（1,1） for operating costs is established, and the post-test differential test method is used to test the accuracy of the operating cost forecast, then the optimal timing of equipment scrapping and replacement can be determined, the equipment cost can be optimized and the benefit can be maximized. Examples show that, the economic life prediction model of grid equipment based on the grey theory prediction constructed in this paper is feasible and the measurement results are more accurate. By comparing with actual service life of the equipment and analyzing the reasons for the differences, it can provide certain decision support for the technical transformation and grid planning of the power grid company.