风力发电为主导的孤立发电系统可靠性评估

针对内蒙古的特定情况，采用以风力发电为主导的小型孤立发电系统提供电能，可保证供电可靠性、节省柴油燃料和保护当地的生态环境。本文所述的小型孤立发电系统以风/柴/储能联合发电的形式提供电能。文章采用序贯Monte-Carlo模拟法实现风/柴/储能发电系统的可靠性评估。根据风电场的风速历史数据，建立风电场的风速时间序列模型。由风速时间序列计算风力发电机的输出功率。在考虑机组随机故障的情况下，由发电机和负荷模型得到蓄电池的时间序列模型。针对样例系统，量化评估了仿真样本容量、蓄电池容量、蓄电池充放电率和风力发电机额定功率等，一些因素对风/柴/储能发电系统可靠性的影响。仿真结果可为风/柴/储能发电系统可靠运行提供依据，为政府及电力部门推广风/柴/储能联合发电向偏远地区供电提供依据。

Reliability Evaluation of Isolated Power System Generated by Wind

For the specific situation of Inner Mongolia,small isolated power system generated by wind can ensure reliability for power supply,save diesel fuel and protect the local ecological environment.In this paper,the small isolated power systems are combined with wind,diesel and energy storage,of which the reliability is evaluated by sequential Monte Carlo simulation method.According to the historical data of wind farm,the time series model of wind speed is established and used to calculate the output of WTG(wind turbine generator).Considering random failure of the units,time series model of the battery is obtained by generator and load models.For the sample system,the affects on system reliability are quantitatively assessed,such as the sample size,the battery capacity,the battery charging and discharging rate,the rated power of WTG and diesel generator,and so on.The simulation results can provide basis for the reliable operation of the co-generation system,and for the government departments and the electric utilities to promote the system to remote areas.