新型电力系统背景下电压暂降风险评估技术挑战与展望

电压暂降已成为最严重的电能质量问题，由于其不可避免，因此风险评估成为减小其影响的关键环节。首先分析了三类电压暂降风险量化指标，将风险评估方法分为基于仿真模拟、基于状态估计以及基于数据驱动三类方法，总结各类方法的优缺点与适用场景；其次，指出在新型电力系统背景下电压暂降风险评估面临的技术挑战；最后，对电压暂降风险评估未来研究方向进行了展望，以期为相关研究开展提供参考思路。

Research Status of Voltage Sag Risk Assessment and Prospect Under the Background of New Power System

Voltage sag has become the most serious power quality problem. Since voltage sag is inevitable, risk assessment becomes the key link to reduce its impact. Firstly, three kinds of risk quantitative indicators for voltage sag are analyzed, and the risk assessment methods are divided into three categories: simulation-based, state estimation-based and data-driven risk assessment methods. The advantages, disadvantages and applicable scenarios of each method are summarized. Secondly, the paper points out the technical challenges faced by voltage sag risk assessment in the context of new power system. Finally, the future research direction of voltage sag risk assessment is prospected, in order to provide reference for related research.