一种计及光伏发电功率不确定性的实时调度方法

大规模光伏发电注入电力系统，其功率的不确定性给实时调度带来了挑战，进而对光伏发电功率和负荷预测的精度提出了更高的要求。针对此问题，文章提出一种计及光伏发电功率不确定性的实时调度方法。首先，基于实时调度的有效稳态安全区域法和线性潮流模型，提出一种计及电压幅值的实时调度模型；其次，通过鲁棒优化等方式将原问题转化为确定性的线性规划问题求解；然后，根据所提方法，分析光伏发电功率和负荷预测精度对于电力系统实时调度安全性和经济性的影响；最后，通过改进IEEE 9节点系统和IEEE 118节点系统进行算例分析，说明所提方法的有效性和高效性。

A Real-Time Dispatch Model Considering the Uncertainty in Photovoltaic Power

When large-scale photovoltaic power generation is injected into power system, the uncertainty of its power output brings new challenges to real-time dispatch, and further puts forward higher requirements for the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction. To solve this problem, a real-time scheduling method considering the power uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, on the basis of the effective steady-state security region method and linear power flow model of real-time dispatching, a real-time dispatching model considering voltage amplitude is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the original problem is transformed into a deterministic linear programming problem by robust optimization. Finally, according to the proposed method, effect of the accuracy of photovoltaic power and load forecasting on the security and economy of power system real-time dispatching is analyzed. In this paper, the effectiveness and efficiency of the method are illustrated by an example of modified IEEE 9-node system and the IEEE 118-node system.