供热系统热动态特性回归模型及热电联合调度

集中供热系统的热动态特性可用于提高供热季热电联产机组的调峰能力以促进风电消纳。采用物理模型对集中供热系统热动态特性进行建模，涉及系统内部各环节的个体特性以及供热管网的拓扑结构特性等，导致基于物理模型的热电联合调度模型过于复杂而不利于在大电网中的应用。首先，着眼系统整体特性，利用自回归分布滞后时间序列建立了质调节运行模式下的热动态特性简化回归模型，并给出了建模方法；之后，构建了基于回归模型的热电联合调度；最后，通过与基于物理模型的调度模式进行对比，验证了基于回归模型的调度模式能够减少变量数量和计算时间，具有良好的简化效果和较高的准确性。

Regression Model for Dynamic Thermal Performance of the District Heating System and Combined Heat and Power Dispatch

Dynamic thermal performance of a district heating system can be utilized to improve the peak regulation capacity of combined heat and power units so as to enhance wind power integration in heating seasons. Modeling dynamic thermal performance with the physical model involves individual characteristics of each part inside the system and topological structure characteristics of pipelines network， resulting in that the combined heat and power dispatch model based on the physical model is complicated， which is difficult to be applied in large-scale power grid analysis. Focusing on the system overall performance， a reduced-form regression model is built to describe the dynamic thermal performance of the district heating system under the quality regulation mode by utilizing the auto-regressive distributed lag time series. The model connotation is analyzed and the modeling method is given. The combined heat and power dispatch model based on the regression model is built. Compared with the dispatch mode based on physical model， the dispatch mode based on the regression model can reduce variable number and calculation time， which has good simplification effect.