基于多场景风险分析的含风电互联电网机组组合策略研究

为保证电力系统可靠运行，日前机组组合应考虑电网中不确定性因素所带来的风险。大规模风电并网给电力系统运行引入了更多的不确定性，电网互联一定程度上可削弱风电不确定性对电网运行的影响，但同时也增大了日前机组组合问题的复杂度。为了在有限的计算时间内获取计及风险的可行的机组组合方案，需要筛选典型场景来衡量电网运行风险。在风电、负荷预测误差的基础上设置了互联电网机组、联络线强迫停运场景集，构建了互联电网弃风电量期望（expected wind power curtailed，EWPC）和电量不足期望（expected energy not supplied，EENS）风险量化指标，并将其以罚函数的形式引入目标函数，建立了计及多场景运行风险的多区域互联电网安全约束机组组合模型，经两区域12节点系统验证了机组组合策略的正确性和有效性。

Study on the Unit Commitment in the Interconnected Power Grid with Wind Power According to Multi-Scenarios Risk Analysis

In order to ensure the reliable operation of power system， the unit commitment should take into account the risk brought by uncertain factors in power grid. Large-scale wind power integration into the power grid brings more uncertainty to the operation of the power system. Power grid interconnection can weaken the impact of wind power uncertainty on power grid operation to some extent， but at the same time it increases the complexity of unit commitment problem. In order to obtain a practical and feasible unit commitment scheme in a limited computing time， it is necessary to screen typical scenarios to measure the operation risk of the power grid. On the basis of wind power and load forecasting errors， a set of forced outage scenarios of units and tie lines in interconnected power grid is set up， and the risk quantification indexes of expected wind power curtailed （EWPC） and expected energy not supplied （EENS） of interconnected power grid are constructed， which are introduced into the objective function in the form of punishment. A model considering the multi-scenario running risks of safety constraint unit commitment of multi-area power grid is established. The correctness and validity of the commitment strategy is verified by the two-region 12-node system.