考虑风电不确定性及柔性负荷的安全约束机组组合问题研究

针对风电出力的不确定性,采用基于拟蒙特卡洛(quasi-Monte Carlo,QMC)模拟的场景分析法生成风电出力初始场景,选取考虑风电预测误差较大的极限场景实现场景缩减。在不同的风电出力场景下,兼顾发电侧与需求侧柔性负荷的双侧协调配合,提出了计及柔性负荷的安全约束机组组合模型,实现了可削减负荷、可平移负荷以及可转移负荷3类柔性负荷的分类调度。通过对不同场景下10机系统的仿真计算,对比分析了需求侧柔性负荷调度对系统的经济成本、负荷峰谷差以及弃风量的影响。在考虑风电不确定性时,需求侧柔性负荷调度对提高系统经济性、缓解负荷高峰期用电压力具有重要作用,并且有利于增加风电的消纳,降低弃风电量。

Security Constrained Unit Commitment Problem Considering Wind Power Uncertainty and Flexible Load

In view of the uncertainty of wind power output, based on quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation method, this paper uses the scenario analysis method to generate initial scenario of wind power output, and selects the extreme scenario including larger wind power prediction error to achieve the reduction of scenario.With different wind power output scenarios, taking into account the bilateral coordination of generation side and demand side with flexible load, this paper proposes the security constrained unit commitment model with flexible load, which can schedule three types of flexible load including curtailable load, shiftable load and transferable load.Through the simulation of different scenarios of 10 units, the influence of the demand side flexible load dispatch on the economic cost, the load peak valley difference and the exhaust air volume are analyzed and compared.Considering the uncertainty of wind power, the demand side of the flexible load scheduling plays an important role in improving the economy of the system and alleviating the peak load, and is beneficial to increase the consumption of wind power and reduce the abandoned wind power.