考虑电网运行状态和结构关联的连锁故障序列预测

针对传统连锁故障考虑因素单一的不足,该文提出一种综合考虑电网运行状态和网络结构的连锁故障预测方法。首先,根据系统运行状态,建立潮流相关的线路故障概率模型和基于Markov方法的隐性故障模型;其次,基于复杂网络理论,提出网络电气结构和保护关联区间,建立故障级间的结构关联模型;最后,兼顾故障后系统运行状态和网络结构的变化,提出连锁故障预测方法,从而辨识出最易受初始扰动影响的下级故障及其影响范围,使预测结果更加符合电网实际运行情况。基于IEEE 30节点系统仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。

Cascading Failure Sequence Forecast Considering Power Grid Operation and Structural Relevance

To overcome the problem of considering single factor of traditional cascading failure, this paper proposes a cascading failures forecast method with comprehensively considering power grid operation and network structure. Firstly, according to the system operation, we construct power flow related line outage probability model and Markov method based hidden failure model; next, based on the complex power grid theory, we propose grid electrical structure and protection relevance zone, and establish structural relevance model; finally, comprehensively considering power grid operation and network structure changing after failure, we present the method of cascading failure forecast so as to identity the lower-level failure which is vulnerable to initial disturbance and its influence range, which can make the prediction results more according with the actual operation of power grid. Simulation results on the IEEE 30-bus system verifies the validity and practicality of this method.