智能配电网不确定性建模与供电特征优化技术综述

随着配电网智能化建设水平的提高,智能配电系统的运行与控制将受到大量不确定因素的影响。如何应对与控制不确定因素对供电特征所带来的不确定影响是智能配电网建设与运行面临的本质问题之一。首先,分析智能配电网所包含的源、网、荷、信息系统与外部异质能源系统等五类不确定因素及其对电压稳定性、电能质量等供电特征的不确定影响,概括了智能配电网不确定性分析与优化控制的研究框架。然后,分别从不确定因素特性及建模、因果式与关联式不确定性分析、供电特征不确定运行优化及其支撑技术三个方面进行了梳理和总结,并展望了各自的发展方向及其面临的挑战,以期为后续研究提供借鉴。

Review on Uncertainty Modeling and Power Supply Characteristics Optimization Technology in Smart Distribution Network

With the intelligent improvement of distribution network, the operation and control in smart distribution system will involve a large number of uncertainties. The optimization control for the power supply characteristics is one of the essential problems under the impacts of uncertainties. This paper first analyzes five kinds of uncertain factors included in smart distribution network, as well as their impacts on power supply characteristics. Then, the research framework of uncertainty in smart distribution network is proposed, where three aspects are summarized respectively including the uncertainty modeling, causal and associative uncertainty analysis, uncertain operating optimization and its supporting technologies. Simultaneously, their development directions and challenges faced are also discussed to provide reference for follow-up research.