暂态稳定概率评估的蒙特卡罗方法

提出了用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)方法进行电力系统暂态稳定概率评估的基本框架。这种评估要进行2种模拟：涉及故障事件的系统状态的概率模拟和系统状态的暂态稳定模拟。文章着重讨论了故障的概率模型及其Monte Carlo模拟方法，给出了2种研究情况的步骤：第(1)种情况是评估由于系统不稳定所造成的系统平均风险指标；第(2)种情况是对于一个给定的故障，建立系统不稳定概率和一个系统运行条件的定量关系。所给的例子表明，文中提出的方法可为电力公司控制中心需要的系统安全运行条件提供十分有用的信息。该方法已在加拿大一实际电力系统中应用。

MONTE CARLO METHOD FOR PROBABILISTIC TRANSIENT STABILITY ASSESSMENT

This paper presents the basic framework of probabilistic transient stability assessment using Monte Carlo methods. The assessment requires two simulation processes: probability simulation and transient stability simulation of system states associated with fault events. The focus is placed on probability models and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The procedures for two types of studies are provided. The first one is evaluation of average system risk index due to system instability and the second one is determination of a relationship between probability of system instability and a system operation condition for a given fault. The presented method can provide useful information in secure system operation for control centers of utilities. The example given in the paper demonstrates an application of the presented method in an actual power system in Canada.