电力市场环境下发电商电能分配策略研究

电力市场环境下，电能现货交易价格的高度不确定性给发电商带来了很大的交易风险。双边合同交易市场的设立为发电商提供了一个有效的风险规避途径。因此，制订合理的交易策略，合理的分配现货市场和双边合同市场交易份额有助于发电商在最大程度上实现利润最大化和风险最小化的交易目标。基于均值-方差原理提出了一个发电商交易策略构建模型，该模型充分考虑交易计划期内每个交易时段的电价特性并针对每个交易时段制订不同的交易策略。基于美国PJM电力市场历史数据的仿真结果验证了该模型的合理性和有效性。该文的研究结果为发电商的交易策略制定提供了一种解析分析的途径。

Trading Strategy of Generation Companies in Electricity Market

In an electricity market, generation companies (Gencos) face price risks due to the high fluctuation of the spot energy price. Bilateral contract market provides an efficient way for Gencos to hedge the price risk. Therefore, making appropriate trading strategy and allocating energy between spot and bilateral contract markets can help Gencos to achieve their trading objective of maximizing profits and minimizing risks to a large extent. Based on the mean-variance criterion, a trading decision model is proposed in which price characteristics of each trading interval during the planning period are considered and different trading strategy is made for different trading interval. Based on the historical data of the USA PJM market, simulation results confirm the rationality and efficiency of the proposed model. An analytical approach for Gencos to make trading strategies is developed.