| 大用户模糊优化购电组合策略的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑雅楠,李庚银,周明.大用户模糊优化购电组合策略的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2010(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑雅楠 李庚银 周明 |
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| 作者单位： | 电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学); |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(70773039); 高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B08013); 教育部科学技术研究重点项目(107030)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 随着用户侧电力市场的开放,大用户允许在现货市场、长期合约市场和自备电厂中选择购电。面对这种市场角色的转变,综合考虑现货市场和长期合约市场电价的相关性,采用多变量灰色模型(multi-variablegre ymodel,MGM)(1,n),对现货市场和长期合约市场电价进行长期综合预测;在预测电价的基础上,运用模糊优化的方法,按照用户给定的期望目标及容差,建立了线性隶属函数的均值–风险价值(valueatrisk,VaR)最优购电组合模型。算例表明:电价的综合预测体现了现货市场和长期合约市场的相关性,预测精度更高;购电组合的模糊优化模型保证了用户兼顾电价和风险,更能满足用户的期望。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力市场 大用户直购电 电价预测 多变量灰色预测模型 购电组合策略 均值–VaR 模糊优化 |
Studies of Electricity Procurement Strategy for Large Consumers Based on Fuzzy Optimization |
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| ZHENG Ya-nan,LI Geng-yin,ZHOU Ming ,Ministry of Education,Changping District,Beijing ,China.Studies of Electricity Procurement Strategy for Large Consumers Based on Fuzzy Optimization[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010(10). |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Ya-nan LI Geng-yin ZHOU Ming Ministry of Education Changping District Beijing China |
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| Affiliation: | ZHENG Ya-nan,LI Geng-yin,ZHOU Ming (Key Laboratory of Power System Protection , Dynamic Security Monitoring , Control(North China Electric Power University),Ministry of Education,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the development of retail power market, large consumers can choose purchasing electric energy among spot market, long-term contract trade power market and autonomous power plant. Based on the role change, considering the correlativeness of the power price in spot market and long-term contract trade power market comprehensively, the multi-variable grey model (MGM) (1, n) in power price forecast is adopted to make a long-term comprehensive forecast for the power price. Based on the forecasted power price... |
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| Keywords: | power market large consumers direct purchasing electricity electricity price forecast multi-variable grey model (MGM) in prediction combination strategy of purchasing electricity mean-value at risk (VaR) fuzzy optimization |
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