计及恶劣天气因素的复杂电网连锁故障事故链模型

恶劣天气条件下电网各元件发生故障的机率明显增加,加大了电网恶性事故发生的概率。通过电网自组织临界态的演化与事故链各环节发展的对比,指出事故链可以作为表征电网自组织临界态进程的有效工具。在传统电网事故链模型基础之上,基于自组织临界理论,建立计及恶劣天气因素的复杂电网连锁故障事故链模型及其仿真算法,以事故链的形式仿真电网自临界状态演化进程中潜在的连锁故障传播途径,为运行方式制订人员甄别恶劣天气下电网危险环节提供重要依据。对河南电网的实例分析,证明了所提出模型的有效性和可行性。

Complex Grid Failure Propagating Chain Model in Consideration of Adverse Weather

In condition of adverse weather,the probability of components failure in the power grid was increasing significantly and amplifying the probability of serious grid accidents.In comparison with the evolution of grid self-organized criticality and the section development of failure propagation chain,this paper first proposed that the failure propagation chain could be characterized as an effective tool for expressing the grid self-organized status.Then,after the analysis of traditional cascading failure chain,the complex grid failure propagating chain model,using grid self-organized criticality,in consideration of adverse weather,was established,simulating the potential cascading failure trail during the process of evolution of grid self-organized status in form of failure propagating chain.The introduction of this model can provide a key reference for grid operator in screening the weakness of power grid.The simulation of Henan power grid proves the availability and feasibility of the model.