| 电力市场短期发电边际成本的概率学预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张少华,李渝曾.电力市场短期发电边际成本的概率学预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(10):19-22,26. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张少华 李渝曾 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海大学自动化学院,上海市,200072 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 !(5 96 770 11)，上海市教委科技发展基金资助项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 电力市场中发电边际成本经常用于发电上网定价和电力交易合同定价的风险决策。基于边际成本的定义和随机生产模拟技术，提出一种短期发电边际成本的概率学预测方法，不仅能给出发电边际成本的均值，而且能得到其概率分布函数。理论分析和算例测试结果表明了该方法的合理性和有效性。
|
| 关 键 词： | 电力市场 短期发电边际成本 概率学 预测 |
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF SHORT-RUN MARGINAL COST OF POWER GENERATION UNDER ELECTRICITY MARKET |
| |
| ZHANG Shao-hua,LI Yu-zeng.PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF SHORT-RUN MARGINAL COST OF POWER GENERATION UNDER ELECTRICITY MARKET[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2000,20(10):19-22,26. |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Shao-hua LI Yu-zeng |
| |
| Abstract: | In
the upcoming electricity market environment,marginal cost of power generation will play an
important role in power pool's purchase pricing and risk analysis of farward contract
pricing.Based on the definition of marginal cost and the technology of probabilistic
costing,this paper provides a method for forecasting the expected value and probability
distribution function of the short-run marginal cost of power generation for a given time
interval.Theoretical analysis and numerical testing show that the proposed method is quite
reasonable and efficient. |
| |
| Keywords: | electricity market short\|run marginal cost of power generation marginal operation cost marginal outage cost probability distribution function |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
