首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     

风电场风速和发电功率预测研究
引用本文:杨秀媛,肖洋,陈树勇.风电场风速和发电功率预测研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(11):0-5.
作者姓名:杨秀媛  肖洋  陈树勇
作者单位:1. 北京机械工业学院,北京市,海淀区,100085
2. 东北电力学院,吉林省,吉林市,132012
3. 中国电力科学研究院,北京市,海淀区,100085
摘    要:风速预测对风电场和电力系统的运行都具有重要意义。对风速进行比较准确的预测,可以有效地减轻或避免风电场对电力系统的不利影响,同时提高风电场在电力市场中的竞争能力。基于时间序列法和神经网络法,该文对风速预测进行了研究,提出了预测风速的时序神经网络法。该方法用时间序列法建模,得到风速特性的基本参数,并用这些参数选择神经网络的输入变量;为了提高预测精度,提出了滚动式权值调整手段。该方法有效地提高了风速预测的精度。

关 键 词:风电场  风速  预测研究  发电功率  神经网络法  时间序列法  电力系统  不利影响  竞争能力  电力市场  输入变量  参数选择  预测精度  权值调整  滚动式
文章编号:0258-8013(2005)11-0001-05
收稿时间:2005-01-05
修稿时间:2005年1月5日

WIND SPEED AND GENERATED POWER FORECASTING IN WIND FARM
YANG Xiu-yuan,XIAO Yang,CHEN Shu-yong.WIND SPEED AND GENERATED POWER FORECASTING IN WIND FARM[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2005,25(11):0-5.
Authors:YANG Xiu-yuan  XIAO Yang  CHEN Shu-yong
Affiliation:YANG Xiu-yuan 1,XIAO Yang2,CHEN Shu-yong 3
Abstract:Wind speed forecasting is very important to the operation of wind power plants and power systems. It can relieve or avoid the disadvantageous impact of wind power plants on power systems and enhance the competitive ability of wind power plants against other power plants in electricity markets. Based on time series method and ANN (artificial neural network), the authors studied the wind speed forecasting and proposed a time series ANN method for wind speed forecasting. In the proposed method the mathematical model was built by time series method to obtain the basic parameters of wind speed characteristics, then these parameters was used to choose input variables of ANN. To improve the forecasting accuracy of ANN a rolling method to adjust weight factors was put forward. With above-mentioned method the wind speed forecasting accuracy was effectively improved.
Keywords:Wind power generation  Wind speed  forecasting  Wind power forecasting  Time series  ANN
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《中国电机工程学报》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《中国电机工程学报》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号