双重故障模式下基于证据理论和功能组分解的N-k事故辨识方法

根据连锁故障不同阶段的特点，连锁故障可以分解为源发性故障阶段和相继故障阶段。文章分析了不同类型的保护装置隐性故障在源发性故障阶段的故障后果，指出保护拒动、断路器失灵等隐性故障在连锁故障研究中的重要性。特别针对断路器失灵故障，提出一种由源发性故障和断路器失灵故障组成的双重故障模式。并基于证据理论和功能组分解思想，给出了该故障模式下的N-k事故辨识方法。算例分析表明，双重故障模式下的N-k事故辨识与源发性故障、故障断路器以及相关母线的接线方式有关，而变电站发电厂主接线对N-1事故扩大为N-k事故有直接的影响。

N-k Contingency Identification Method Under Double Failure Incident Based on Evidence Theory and Functional Group Decomposition

According to characteristic of stages, the cascading failures may be decomposed as the source fault stage and the continual fault stage. The article analyzed consequences of different types of hidden failures in protective device during the source fault stage, and pointed out the importance of hidden failures such as protection miss operation and breaker failure in cascading failures research. Especially aiming at breaker failure, the paper proposed one kind of twin failure pattern composed of the source fault and the breaker failure. Based on the evidence theory and the functional group decomposition thought, the paper produced a kind of N-k contingency identification method under this failure pattern. Example analysis indicated that N-k contingency identification under twin failure pattern correlate with the source fault, fault breaker as well as related busbar connection mode. Furthermore, both power plant bus arrangements and substation bus arrangements have the direct influence to the N-1 contingency expansion to N-k contingency.