输电网的蒙特卡罗模拟与线损概率评估

提出一种输电网状态模拟与线损概率评估方法。该方法包括系统状态模拟和蒙特卡罗抽样2部分，在系统状态模拟时，采用具有正态分布特点的随机数来模拟节点负荷功率状态，通过建立发电机组启停的经济调度模型及其启发式调度方法来模拟机组的启停状态与运行状态，通过变电站电压无功控制(voltage and reactive power control，VQC)和发电厂逆调压控制来模拟系统电压无功的运行状态。在蒙特卡罗抽样时，基于上述模拟方法，通过对随机样本的状态调整与潮流计算来确定网络线损率的概率分布。由于论文方法比较全面地考虑了电网线损的影响因素，相应确定的线损率指标能比较真实地反映实际系统状况，因而具有更大的实用价值。仿真算例验证了论文方法的有效性。

Monte Carlo Simulation and Transmission Loss Evaluation With Probabilistic Method

A new method to simulate the states of transmission network and to evaluate its power losses was presented based on probabilistic methodology. The proposed method includes two parts. One part is the simulation of system states. In which, the stochastic variables with normal distribution are used to express the electric loads, and a new model of unit commitment and its heuristic approach are proposed to simulate the unit states, and the voltage and reactive power control (VQC) of substation and the reverse voltage regulation of generating plants are applied to simulating the voltage/var operation states of power network. The other part is Monte Carlo simulation. In which, the probabilistic distribution of the transmission loss rate is determined by nonlinear power flow computation after the states of the stochastic sample are regulated by the simulation method above. Because the affects to transmission losses are fully considered by the proposed method, the result is more accurate and more useful. Simulation test was given to testify the validity and efficiency of the proposed method.