基于风险理论和模糊推理的电压脆弱性评估

该文分析了在电力市场环境下传统的电力系统电压安全评估方法存在的缺陷，论述了实行电压脆弱性评估的必要性，应用了电压脆弱性概念：该概念综合反映了电压的安全水平以及系统运行条件变化对其的影响：并用电压风险指标和风险指标变化率分别表示电压的安全水平以及系统运行条件变化对其的影响；采用模糊推理方法，结合运行人员的经验，由电压风险指标和风险指标变化率推理出电压的脆弱度，为运行人员决策提供了有力支持。基于该方法编写了电压脆弱性评估软件，新英格兰39节点算例证明了该方法的有效性以及软件的实用性。

VOLTAGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT BASED ON RISK THEORY AND FUZZY REASONING

This paper summarizes the defects of traditional assessment methods for voltage security and points out the necessity of voltage security vulnerability assessment in the power market environment.A concept of voltage vulnerability is introduced as a framework for power system voltage security assessment.This concept combines information on the level of voltage security and its trend with changing system conditions.An approach is presented to calculate the voltage vulnerability for power systems based on risk theory and fuzzy reasoning.Voltage risk index and its trend to load level are calculated to deal with both the level of security and its trend with changing system conditions.Fuzzy reasoning is used to obtain the voltage vulnerability from the voltage risk index and its trend based on the system operators' experiences.It supports system operators effectively.A software has been implemented based the proposed approach.At last,the approach and the software are illustrated with New England 39-bus system.The results show the effectiveness of the approach.