基于负荷裕度随机特性的电压失稳概率问题研究

为了克服传统分析方法在电压稳定问题研究中存在的不足,需要掌握与电压失稳现象相关的一些概率信息。针对这种情况,提出了一种基于负荷裕度随机特性的方法来计算系统电压失稳的概率。该方法通过研究连续潮流计算中与临界点位置密切相关的参数随机变化来确定相应的负荷裕度的随机特性,并在此基础上利用半不变量方法获取所需的电压失稳概率。由于该方法在计算过程中考虑了更多不确定性因素对电压稳定的影响,因此其结果在准确性和合理性上都有很大程度的提高。对IEEE 39节点系统的仿真研究证实了上述方法的正确性。

A Study on Probability of Voltage Instability Based on the Stochastic Characteristic of Load Margin Index

In order to make up the deficiency of traditional analytical method used in the research of voltage stability problem, we need to know the probability information concerned with voltage instability. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to calculate the probability of voltage instability based on the stochastic characteristic of load margin index. This method firstly determines the stochastic characteristic of load margin index through an analysis about the randomicity of parameters which tie up with the tracing of critical point in continue power flow computation, and then figures out the probability of voltage instability by using moment and cumulate method. Owing to take into account more uncertain factors' influence on the voltage stability, the result acquired by this method is much more accurate and reasonable. A numerical simulation based on IEEE 39-bus system reveals that the proposed method works properly.