基于SP/A决策思想的发电公司报价决策模型及求解方法

以安全、潜力和期望(security, potential and aspiration, SP/A)风险决策理论为基础，该文对发电公司面对风险决策时应该考虑的因素进行了分析和数学描述，其中在报价方案潜力性的分析上有效地结合了经济学中机会成本理论。在此基础上，考虑发电公司自身发电计划约束，建立起一种发电公司计及风险因素的竞价决策模型，并结合矩阵实数编码遗传算法(matrix real-coded genetic algorithm, MRCGA)对该模型的优化求解进行了探讨。该文所建的竞价决策模型既考虑了自身发电计划安排，又顾及了在面对风险发电公司竞价决策时应该考虑的一些因素，因此模型比较贴近于实际的发电竞价情况。通过算例的模拟分析表明，文中所提出的基于SP/A的发电公司竞价决策模型是合理的，其求解方法也是切实可行的。

A Decision-making Model and Its Solution of GENCO's Bidding Strategy Based on SP/A Theory

A new decision-making model of generation company's (GENCO's) biding strategy based on the security, potential and aspiration (SP/A) theory and self-schedule is presented in this paper. The opportunity cost of economic theory is used to analyze and evaluate the potential of GENCO's biding strategy, and the security and aspiration are also analyzed and described mathematically according to the idea of SP/A theory. Because considering the decision psychology and the self-scheduling, the proposed model is close to the actual decision-making process of GENCO. The matrix real-coded genetic algorithm (MRCGA) is used to solve the optimal bidding strategy of the model. Illustrative examples show that the proposed model is appropriate and the approach for solving bidding strategy of GENCO is feasible.