| 电力系统短期负荷预测的非线性混沌改进模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕金虎,占勇,陆君安.电力系统短期负荷预测的非线性混沌改进模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(12):80-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕金虎 占勇 陆君安 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院应用数学研究所,北京,100080
2. 武汉大学,湖北省,武汉市,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 煤燃烧国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目! (970 8) |
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| 摘 要： | 改进了文「１」中负荷数据序列的Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数计算方法,提高了Ｌｙａｐｕｎｏｖ指数的计算精度并增强了可靠性,这种建立在非线性混沌改进模型基础上的预测方法不仅对小数据组可靠,而且计算量小,相对容易操作,通过对华东某电网实际负荷数据进行的预测,精度明显优于文「１」中的方法,且具有较强的自适应能力和通用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 短期负荷预测 非线性混沌模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-11-29 |
THE NON-LINEAR CHAOTIC IMPROVED MODEL OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING |
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| L Jin-hu,ZHAN Yong,LU Jun-an.THE NON-LINEAR CHAOTIC IMPROVED MODEL OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2000,20(12):80-83. |
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| Authors: | L Jin-hu ZHAN Yong LU Jun-an |
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| Affiliation: | L(U) Jin-hu,ZHAN Yong,LU Jun-an |
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| Abstract: | The calculation method of Lyapunov exponent for the load time series in 1] is improved. Furthermore, the calculating precision and reliability are increased. The forecasting method based on non linear chaotic model is not only reliable to small data sets, but also of little account amount and easy to handle. The short term load forecasting of a certain electric network in East China shows that the precision outgoes the method in 1],and the improved method has adaptive ability itself and general use. |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting chaos Lyapunov exponent C C method |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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