风电场发电容量可信度研究

风力发电对电力系统发电可靠性具有一定贡献，如何衡量风电场的发电容量可信度是电力系统规划和评估风电场所必须解决的关键问题之一。文中建立了基于蒙特卡罗仿真的风电发电容量可信度的评估框架。风力模型、风机模型以及风电场模型构成了该体系的基础，其优点在于可以考虑不同风电场之间的内在关联特性。在此基础上利用可靠性指标，以风电场可替代的常规发电机组容量与风电场额定容量的比值作为定义考察了风电场的发电容量可信度，提出了多风电场系统风电容量可信度的计算方法。可靠性标准算例的仿真计算结果证明了所提出的评估体系的正确性和实用性。

RESEARCH ON THE CAPACITY CREDIT OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES

Wind energy is still considered to be an energy-replacement rather than capacity-replacement sources for its fluctuating nature. The actual benefits of wind energy cannot be explicitly assigned without in depth analysis of the impact of adding wind energy to the traditional power system. A detailed adequacy evaluation scheme is presented in this paper which is based on Monte Carlo method to quantitatively evaluate the capacity-replacement contribution of wind energy. A new wind generation unit model, which is one of the crucial steps in adequacy evaluation, is proposed firstly. It can be divided into three parts: wind, wind turbine and wind farm. Describing the wind speed correlation of different wind farms is a feature of this paper. Basing on these models, we can carry through a Monte-Carlo simulation to get the anticipative reliability indices. Finally, the validity of the proposed model and algorithm is proved by an analysis of the selected sample system.