基于马尔可夫链和故障枚举法的可用输电能力计算

可用输电能力(ATC)是电力市场中指导电网输电交易的重要指标,也是电网调度部门调整阻塞的重要参考。电力系统是一个动态时变系统,存在大量的不确定性和随机性,考虑这些不确定性因素对ATC的影响是准确计算ATC的一个难点。马尔可夫链能根据系统的初始状态和可能状态之间的转移概率预测系统未来的发展趋势,该文引入马尔可夫链对电力系统状态进行预测,并采用故障枚举法对各时刻的可能状态进行枚举,通过概率方法求取ATC的期望值,并能得到ATC随时间变化的曲线。IEEE14节点系统的计算结果表明,所提出的模型及算法是正确有效的,能给出更准确的ATC信息。

Available Transfer Capability Calculation Based on Markov Chain and Enumeration Method

Available transfer capability(ATC)is an important index for determining power delivery contracts and managing transmission congestion.In power markets,large amount of uncertainties and dynamic,continuous and time-varying features of power systems have great impacts on ATC.How to deal with these uncertainties are the main difficulties in ATC calculation.Markov chain has the ability to describe large amount of uncertainties,and forecast the future states of power systems based on the initial state and transition probability.A novel method is proposed to forecast continuous system states based on Markov chain,and use enumeration method to get the ATC expectation values of each time point,finally get the changing ATC curve with time.The IEEE 14-bus test system is used to verify the presented approach.The results show the model and algorithm is correct and effective,and more accurate information of ATC is gained.